Given the delay in official data during this crisis, I am calculating current unemployment rates using our own independent statistical database and proprietary methods – we use official data wherever possible.
Official data is more delayed than usual. And that in itself is not accurate due to the fact that US agencies are overwhelmed. Thus, I believe in times like this it is worthwhile to have a “real live” estimate for current unemployment and GDP.
FED chairman Powell also spoke this week and addressed unemployment and labor markets. I have made an independent analysis of that and a few other developments consensus is only scratching at the surface.
Unemployment – underreported
Based on our independent estimates US unemployment will reach 22.4% this month of May.
We estimated the real rate already above 18% in April, the US government reported it as slightly above 14%. Meanwhile German unemployment has edged up to 5.8%. See the chart below. The difference between the USA and Germany, Europe’s economic engine, could not be more striking.